New Estimates Raise HIV Incidence Rates in the United States

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Title: New Estimates Raise HIV Incidence Rates in the United States
URL: http://www.pslgroup.com/dg/226F7A.htm
Doctor's Guide
August 4, 2008

NEW YORK -- August 4, 2008 -- New technology and methodology developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show that the incidence of HIV in the United States is higher than was previously known. The findings are published in the August 3 issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association.

In 2006, an estimated 56,300 new HIV infections occurred -- a number that is substantially higher than the previous estimate of 40,000 annual new infections.

It should be noted that the new incidence estimate does not represent an actual increase in the numbers of HIV infections. Rather, a separate CDC historical trend analysis published as part of this study suggests that the annual number of new infections was never as low as 40,000 and that it has been roughly stable since the late 1990s (with estimates ranging between 55,000 and 58,500 during the 3 most recent time periods analysed).

Remnant diagnostic serum specimens from patients aged 13 years or older and newly diagnosed with HIV during 2006 in 22 states were tested with the BED HIV-1 capture enzyme immunoassay to classify infections as recent or long-standing.

Information on HIV cases was reported to the CDC through June 2007. Incidence of HIV in the 22 states during 2006 was estimated using a statistical approach with adjustment for testing frequency and extrapolated to the United States.

Results were corroborated with back-calculation of HIV incidence for 1977 through 2006 based on HIV diagnoses from 40 states and AIDS incidence from 50 states and the District of Columbia.

The new estimates show that gay and bisexual men of all races and ethnicities and African American men and women are the groups most affected by HIV. Of all new infections in 2006, 53% occurred in gay and bisexual men. African Americans, while comprising 13% of the US population, accounted for 45% of the new HIV infections in 2006.

The analysis revealed some encouraging signs of progress as well as significant challenges. Findings documented reductions in new infections among both injecting drug users and heterosexuals over time.

Yet, the findings also indicate that HIV incidence has been steadily increasing among gay and bisexual men since the early 1990s, confirming a trend suggested by prior data showing increases in risk behaviour, sexually transmitted diseases, and HIV diagnoses in this population throughout the past decade.

The analysis also found that new infections among blacks are at a higher level than any other racial or ethnic group, though they have been roughly stable, with some fluctuations, since the early 1990s. The new estimates highlight the need for expanded HIV prevention services and should serve as a wake-up call that the US HIV/AIDS epidemic is far from over.

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Journal of the American Medical Association

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