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Title: Arthritis Prevalence in Patients Over 65 Will Double Over a 25 Year Period

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Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 2003;52:21:489-491.
06/06/2003 01:50:16 PM
By Deanna M. Green

Cases of arthritis and chronic joint symptoms in people over 65 are projected to double between 2005 and 2030, according to a recent American study. Incidence of arthritis and other rheumatic conditions, such as chronic joint symptoms (CJS), is known to increase with age. This puts the elderly at the greatest risk of developing these nonfatal yet disabling conditions. Furthermore, given that US adults are living longer due to better management of other chronic diseases and lower mortality from infectious diseases, the population of people over 65 continues to grow; thereby increasing the number of people at risk of developing arthritis. Jennifer M. Hootman, PhD, and colleagues at the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States, estimated the projected future burden of arthritis or CJS in this group. Estimates were made using patient-reported diagnoses of arthritis or CJS obtained from the 2001 Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System, a random telephone survey of US adults over the age of 18, and US Census projections of the national population for 2005 to 2030. Census reports estimated that the number of US citizens over the age of 65 will increase from 12.9% of the population in 2005 to 20.0% in 2030. Moreover, if current incidence rates within this population are applied, the number of people with arthritis or CJS will double from 21.4 million in 2005 to 41.1 million in 2030. In addition, specific predictions using individual state prevalence rates and population projections indicated that Hawaii will have the lowest incidence (34.8%) and Alabama will have the highest incidence (70.3%) of arthritis within this population. This analysis predicts that in 11 states and Puerto Rico about 60% of people over 65 with have arthritis or CJS in 2025. Based on these projections, Dr. Hootman recommends that "proven public health interventions should be applied and new interventions developed to improve function, decrease pain, and delay disability among persons with arthritis, particularly those at highest risk for functional impairment and disability."

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